Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.279422 1.348678 1.420566 1.500930 1.588473 1.681179 1.787082
2025-12-14 1.150364 1.245294 1.347982 1.467953 1.605087 1.757941 1.942606
2025-12-21 1.077760 1.187895 1.310453 1.458150 1.632961 1.835390 2.090727
2025-12-28 1.035761 1.158651 1.298658 1.471878 1.683171 1.936263 2.268301
2026-01-04 0.988346 1.118531 1.269628 1.460557 1.699258 1.993358 2.392365
2026-01-11 0.961194 1.099820 1.263586 1.474782 1.745278 2.088069 2.569359
2026-01-18 0.931600 1.075960 1.249100 1.476361 1.773676 2.160064 2.719827
2026-01-25 0.916835 1.069010 1.254370 1.502154 1.833621 2.276125 2.939453
2026-02-01 0.879764 1.032401 1.220290 1.474630 1.820179 2.290314 3.012589
2026-02-08 0.840566 0.991497 1.178866 1.435093 1.787645 2.274889 3.039034
2026-02-15 0.815785 0.967913 1.158600 1.422427 1.790803 2.309345 3.142728
2026-02-22 0.798838 0.953635 1.149648 1.424222 1.813671 2.372890 3.296209
2026-03-01 0.773547 0.928437 1.126332 1.406612 1.809802 2.399309 3.397190
2026-03-08 0.744868 0.897970 1.095026 1.376670 1.786610 2.395179 3.447493
2026-03-15 0.726052 0.879807 1.079415 1.367784 1.793413 2.436922 3.578901
2026-03-22 0.716301 0.873248 1.079072 1.380227 1.832216 2.530875 3.811077
2026-03-29 0.699105 0.856100 1.063543 1.369966 1.835698 2.567885 3.943380
2026-04-05 0.690938 0.850818 1.064068 1.382859 1.875207 2.666244 4.201540
2026-04-12 0.679385 0.840514 1.057141 1.384290 1.896531 2.735219 4.410692
2026-04-19 0.675608 0.840691 1.064829 1.407650 1.953817 2.869919 4.770418
2026-04-26 0.656677 0.819359 1.041263 1.382721 1.931241 2.862097 4.829384
2026-05-03 0.635152 0.793939 1.011202 1.346870 1.889105 2.816592 4.801788
2026-05-10 0.622074 0.780028 0.997313 1.335375 1.886812 2.843219 4.936944